Sunday, July 26, 2020

World Investment Report 2020

According to UNCTAD's World Investment Report 2020, FDI inflows in 2019 amounted to USD 246 billion, down from USD 254 billion of 2018 (-2.9%). The decline is mainly due to the fall of cross-border M&A sales for the fourth consecutive year. The US FDI stock in 2019 reached USD 9 465 billion. The country remained the top destination for FDI in 2019 due to its large consumer base, a predictable and transparent justice system, a productive workforce, a highly developed infrastructure and a business environment that fosters innovation. In 2019, the United States was the second largest investor in the world with FDI outflows - after Japan - reaching USD 125 billion. The main investor countries in the United States are United Kingdom, Canada, Japan,  the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Germany and Switzerland. Most of these investments are in manufacturing, financial and insurance activities, trade and maintenance, and information and communication. According to a UNCTAD survey of multinational enterprises (MNEs), the United States is considered the first potential host economy in terms of FDI for 2017-2019, ahead of China and India.
According to the World Bank's Doing Business 2020 report, the United States ranks 6th out of 190 countries for the quality of its business climate, gaining two spots compared to 2019. The country remains the world's leading economic power, the largest international financial center, and the third largest country in the world in terms of population. The United States is one of the countries with the best regulatory performance in paying taxes. In 2019, they made paying taxes less costly (decrease in the corporate income tax rate) in New York City and Los Angeles. Starting a business is now easier (online filing of the statement of information for limited liability companies) and enforcing contracts too (electronic filing and electronic payment of court fees). In order to have a better rank, the US can improve his ability to get electricity, register property and trade across border.

Wednesday, February 20, 2019

2020 presidential election

In the 2020 US presidential election, will you vote for Donald Trump?

Wednesday, February 6, 2019

Biocon and the Brave new world of Biosimilars

Note: The story will largely focus on the U.S market because of the potential opportunity it provides and the increasing focus of Biosimilar companies to gain a foothold in the market

Innovators and Copycats

In 1989, Pfizer chemists (pharmaceutical giant) in East England were trying to synthesize a simple molecule drug that they thought might treat high blood pressure and chest pain. The low priority project had pretty disappointing results initially and showed little to no promise. In 1993, during a clinical trial, researchers were trying to study the effects of the drug on a group of Welsh Mineworkers. After a disappointing review, the researcher finally asked if the participants noted anything else they might want to report. One of the men put up his hand and said, "Well, I seemed to have more erections during the night than normal," and everybody else kind of nodded and said, "So did we." On that gloomy evening in South East England, the world had finally chanced upon Viagra, the miracle drug. It took another 4 years for the FDA (Food and Drug Administration, USA) to approve the magic pill, but at the end of it all Pfizer had in its hands what is often touted as a "blockbuster drug."
The point here is that success in this market is deeply intertwined with the research and development process that characterizes the pharmaceutical industry. It might take 5 years for you to develop a new drug and you might still need another 10 years to clinically test the product and gain approval from the regulatory agencies. This is an extremely capital intensive process and the only way to remunerate the investment of the pharma company is to protect the investment through patent protection. Viagra's product patent lasts a whole 20 years (US) and no other company can sell the same compound during that time. This way the companies can be incentivised to invest more in research thereby ensuring a steady supply of new innovator drugs.
Once the patent expires, however, copycats can market their own version of the drug. These copycat drugs are called generics and companies can replicate the manufacturing process with relative ease. In order for a company to market a generic, the FDA must agree that the generic is interchangeable with the innovator product and that it contains the same active ingredient. Because of the relative simplicity involved in manufacturing generics, the industry also breeds intense competition. This increasing competition has interestingly spun off a new proxy war of its own with its own cast of complex characters.

The Need for Complexity

Ever since modern medicine started to emerge post the Industrial Revolution, simple molecules have been used to treat most diseases. While these formulations were highly effective against some illnesses, it was proving particularly ineffective against more complex diseases like cancer. Our immune system has evolved over millions of years to specifically defend against intruders by finding and destroying anything that's not supposed to be inside our bodies. But cancer isn't like most diseases. It's not caused by an invasion of a foreign pathogen. Instead, it's a byproduct of rogue cells within our body that don't necessarily act the way they should. To this end, using simple molecules to defend against a barrage of mutating versions of our own cells is an exercise in futility. In the process of killing the bad cells, these drugs will simultaneously annihilate the healthy cells too. So the cut-slash-kill method isn't particularly effective. What we instead need is a 'biologic' or a complex protein isolated from natural sources that can mimic our immune cells.
Although initial attempts to replicate and genetically modify antibodies failed quite miserably, the field of biologics has begun to show considerable promise since the turn of the century. Also, the advent of biologics isn't a particularly new phenomenon. We have had vaccines for a good half century now and considering most vaccines are complex living agents that resemble a disease-causing microorganism, they fit under the ambit of biologics pretty well. However, it's only in the last 25 years that new developments in genetic engineering/recombination techniques and targeted therapies have begun to open up new opportunities and this, in turn, has breathed new life into the field of biologics and with it, its copycats — biosimilars.

Similar but not same

Unlike small molecule drugs like Viagra that can be chemically synthesised using a straightforward approach, biologics are harvested from living cells and are often produced using complicated manufacturing processes. Most modern biologics are assembled inside vats — or bioreactors — that house genetically engineered microbes or cell cultures and can often take a whole decade of research to perfect. So replicating the process isn't exactly a cakewalk and often times the copycat version (biosimilar) can differ from the innovator biologic.
Michael Yang, President of Immunology at Janssen Biotech described it this way — "biologics are living proteins, and living proteins can't be copied, in the same way, that one oak tree is different from another, even though they are both classified as oak trees." A biosimilar is not equivalent to the original biologic, instead is highly similar in the way that it interacts with the human body. The design and creation of a biologic drug is complicated enough that a biosimilar isn't going to be precisely the same as a biologic. So the FDA has to be extremely meticulous whilst approving the drug and ensure that it acts the same way as the reference(innovator) biologic would. So in addition to the lengthier, more expensive development process, biosimilars also entail a more time-consuming approval process characterised by several phases of clinical trials. While multiple Indian companies have forayed into manufacturing and marketing generics in developed markets, only one Indian player seems to be trying to make a dent in the biosimilar space.

Wednesday, February 10, 2016

The bad times continue for Indian markets this year, with Nifty trading at 20-month lows.

Sensex at 20-Month Low But Experts Make Case For Buying Stocks
The bad times continue for Indian markets this year, with Nifty trading at 20-month lows. A global selloff in equities and continued weakness in corporate earnings have been blamed for the slide in domestic stock markets this year.

Experts have not ruled out weakness in markets ahead of the budget, which will be presented on February 29.

How should investors position themselves amid heightened volatility? Sanjay Sinha, founder of Citrus Advisors and former CEO of L&T Mutual Fund, says "it makes sense to position on the bullish side of the market."

Mr Sinha has strong hopes from the budget. "This budget is very significant for the NDA government. On the execution front, the government has made good progress," he said.

"But there is one big pain point in the economy - the banking sector. The government has been proactive with power sector reforms (Uday) and Indradhanush programmes (capital infusion plans). But a little more radical action needs to be taken at this point of time."

"If that is done, the budget could turn out to be a watershed event and if the budget is very positive on the policy front, it could be a trigger for the market," he added.

"If you are very focused on the very short term, given the trade-off between what will happen next week and what will happen after budget, it makes sense to position on the bullish side of the market," Mr Sinha said.

My Sinha does not see a significant correction in Indian stock markets from current levels. "It makes practical sense to accumulate stocks rather than stand on the sidelines," he said.

Technical analysts have also made a case for buying at current levels. According to Anil Manghnani of Modern Shares and Stock Broker, the Nifty has solid support at 7,120, which represents the 50 per cent retracement of the rise that started from 5,119 in August 2013 to 9,119 in March 2015.

Mr Manghnani says that 7,120 is the level from which he would be interested in buying, even if markets head lower.

 

Sunday, March 25, 2007

Investment Groups in U.S.A

DEFTA Inc U.S.A. Independent Venture Capital,Private Equity

Gilbert Global Equity Capital Asia Ltd U.S.A. Independent Venture Capital,Private Equity

The Camden Group U.S.A. Securities House

New China Management Corp. U.S.A. Independent Venture Capital,Private Equity

PacRim Venture Partners U.S.A. Independent Venture Capital,Private Equity

Softbank Technology Ventures U.S.A. VC Firm
Sycamore Venture U.S.A. VC/ Private Equity